Are New Economic Sanctions on Iran Foreseeable for Noncompliance with International Nuclear Obligations? The Combined Power of International Law with a Unified Action across World Powers.

US State Department spokesperson, Ian Kelly has said, in response to the latest report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) on Iran’s nuclear program, that the report underscores Iran’s refusal to “comply fully with international nuclear obligations.” Kelly’s statement is a result of Iran’s latest skepticism to comply with an international agreement on the scrapping of its nuclear program. The latest Brussels meeting of UN Security Council members and Germany indicates a growing sense of despair by Western diplomats with Iran’s failure to give concessions on its nuclear proliferation program. The negotiations between the “Iran Six” (the US, Britain, China, France and Russia) as well as Germany is centered on a “freeze for freeze” agreement, according to which Iran would suspend its nuclear enrichment program in exchange for the UN Security Council weakening its economic sanctions. However, world powers are growing increasingly desperate with Iran’s failure to carry out its international legal obligations and might proceed to impose sanctions.

Iran is a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and as such is entitled to enrich uranium. The degree of enrichment is essential here. Low enriched uranium (LEO) is for use of fuel in an electricity generating plant. Medium enriched uranium is for production of medical isotopes, and more than 90 percent enrichment is for a bomb-grade fuel. Iran has so far manifested LEO at its Natanz nuclear plant. The latest UN report on Iran’s nuclear program however calls into question Iran’s compliance with the non-Proliferation Treaty. A recently disclosed facility built into a mountain near the city of Qom sparked the latest IAEA report, according to which the building of the facility began in 2002. In fact, the Iranian government refused to ratify the Additional Protocol to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, asserting that it is not obliged to disclose new sites to international inspectors until six months before introducing nuclear arsenal to them, a contention largely disputed by the IAEA and by Western powers. In addition, in a letter on Oct. 28th, Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization states that “”threats of military attacks against Iran” precipitated the construction of a network of “contingency centers for various organizations and activities.” A copy of the “Iran Six” resolution prepared for the October meeting indicates that Iran’s delay in reporting the new Qom facility “does not contribute to the building of confidence in Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.” The latest finding, according to the UN quarterly report on the Qom facility, suggests that Iran has built a nuclear program in contravention of its international nuclear obligations under the Nonproliferation Treaty. In addition, the report also raises questions about whether there are other existing nuclear facilities in Iran.

The Islamic Republic has enriched uranium enough for up to two nuclear weapons. In accordance with the October 1st agreement, with the “Iran Six”, the Islamic Republic is to ship over 70% of its enriched uranium to Russia. In exchange, Iran is to receive fuel, to be used in a plant for medical research and the development of medical isotopes. Iran is yet to respond to its international nuclear obligations to swap its enriched uranium for fuel.

The IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei urged Iran on Wednesday to endorse a plan that would reduce Iran’s enriched stockpile by over 70%. So far, his comments have been the strongest public denouncement of Iran’s attempt to modify the proposal. After Monday’s “Iran Six” meeting, the six world powers drafted a resolution to censure Iran on its latest nuclear facility and to involve the UN Security Council. However, would all six powers agree on the imposition of sanctions?

In the wake of the global economic crisis, both China and Russia have opted to maintain economic relations with Iran. In a recent meeting, China decide to continue cooperating with Iran in the field of hydrocarbons and trade. Russia is in the process of building a nuclear electricity-generating power plant near the Iranian city of Bushehr. These and other examples of economic cooperation suggest that China and Russia will not support sanctions on Iran. However, the latest grouping of China and Russia into the “Iran Six” countries represents a unified action which might make both countries more inclined to support a fourth set of Security Council measures.

The latest news on the development of the most recent IAEA resolution on Iran shows that the world powers have already begun a discussion on imposing new economic sanctions. Noncompliance with treaty provisions, combined with unified action from world powers might lead to an unprecedented headway in the enforcement of international law for the strengthening of peace and security.

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